Emkay Global Financial Services | Infosys Q3FY18 - First Cut Analysis

Infosys (REDUCE, CMP Rs 1078, and TP Rs 950) Dec’17 quarter results:
Infosys results were largely inline for the quarter with a volume growth of 1.6% for the quarter. OPM improved by 10bps during the quarter at 24.3% ahead of expectations. Adjusted PAT inline at Rs36.9bn (down 0.8% QoQ).  Management commentary remained confident as it expect demand environment to improve with more discretionary spend allocations in key verticals in CY18.  Guidance has been retained both on revenue growth and OPM band.  We believe the results are broadly inline and would now look forward to New CEO commentary on strategic roadmap going forward.  We maintain our REDUCE rating on the stock and may review our estimates post the earnings call today at 1830hrs – 022 3938 1098. 
Sep’17 quarter results highlights
  • Revenues at US$ 2.7bn (1% QoQ, 8% YoY and 0.8% QoQ in constant currency terms) inline with our estimates of 1% QoQ US$ revenue growth. IT Services volume growth at 1.6% QoQ (with onsite volumes up 0.4% QoQ and offshore volumes up by 2.2% QoQ). 
  • EBIT margins improved by  10bps QoQ to 24.3% better than our expectations of 23.9%. OPM gains is positive development given the fact that it offered wage hikes and variable payouts during the quarter.
  • Adjusted Profits at Rs36.9bn (down 0.8% QoQ, down 0.3% YoY) ahead of our expectations (of Rs 35bn) aided by beat on operating margins and higher other income. Reported PAT at Rs51.3bn were up 38% QoQ as it benefitted by one time reversal of about Rs14.3bn towards tax provisions no longer required (conclusion of APA with US IRS).
  • Guidance retained at 5.5%-6.5% for CC revenues. OPM range outlook also maintained at 23%-25%.
Operating metrics performance at a glance
Volumes
  • Volumes (IT Services): 1.6%QoQ and 6.2%YoY.  
  • Utilization without trainees: 84.9%, up 20 bps QoQ.
  • Utilization with trainees: 82.1%, up 30 bps QoQ.
Growth by Verticals (all in constant currency terms)
  • Financial Services: 0.1%QoQ
  • Manufacturing: down 0.1%QoQ
  • Retail:  1.2%QoQ  
  • ECS: 2.5% QoQ
Growth by Geographies (all in constant currency terms)
  • US: 0.7%QoQ
  • Europe:  4.7%QoQ
  • ROW: down 4% QoQ
  • India: down 5.9% QoQ
Growth by client metrics
  • Top 1: 1%QoQ
  • Top 10: -0.6% QoQ
  • Non Top 10: 1.4% QoQ
Infosys: Sep’17 quarter result summary
In Rs mn
Q3FY18A
Q2FY18
QoQ(%)
Q3FY17
YoY(%)
Q3FY18E
Net sales (US$ Mn)
        2,755
        2,728
1.0%
        2,551
8.0%
        2,755
Net sales (Rs, Mn)
    177,940
    175,670
1.3%
    172,730
3.0%
    177,945
Operating expenses
134,750
133,210
129,390
135,424
EBIT
      43,190
      42,460
1.7%
      43,340
-0.3%
      42,521
Margins (%)
24.3
24.2
             10
25.1
            (80)
23.9
Other income
9620
8830
8200
5960
Pre-tax profit
52,810
51,290
3.0%
51,540
2.5%
48,481
Tax provided
1520
14030
14460
13478
Profit after tax
51,290
37,260
37.7%
37,080
38.3%
35,003
Emkay Net profit *
      36,970
      37,260
-0.8%
      37,080
-0.3%
      35,003
EPS, Rs
23.6
16.3
44.7%
16.2

16.1
* Adjusted for tax reversal of Rs14,320mn.

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