~45% of respondents across India expect commercial real estate prices to soften ~
Mumbai, 31st January 2017 :- The November 8th announcement of the government to demonetise high value currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 has dampened sentiments of the real estate sector across India, which until now had been comparably more upbeat than most markets in Asia. Both theOccupier Sentiment Index (OSI-an index that shows supply, demand and rent expectations) and Investment Sentiment Index (ISI—an index capturing overall market momentum) readings turned negative in the National Capital Region and Mumbai after demonetisation, according to RICS’ Global Commercial Property Monitor.
The OSI index recorded a reading of -3 in the Q4 (October-December, 2016). It represents the weakest number reported for this indicator since the end of 2013. Demand for retail property fell over this period. Office space was more sought after though the rate of demand growth appears to be moderating.
Quoting findings from the recent RICS monitor, Sachin Sandhir, Global Managing Director – Emerging Business, RICS In India, said, “In India investment demand fell over the quarter, while demand from occupiers was stagnant, pushing both OSI and ISI readings into negative territory for the first time since 2013. While the Occupier Sentiment Index and Investment Sentiment Index stayed modestly positive in Bangalore, respondents said they have lowered their expectations for capital value and rental growth significantly over the next twelve months. While capital value and rental growth are expected to increase, the pace of expected gains has moderated.”
In a specific question designed to capture the impact of demonetisation on the occupier market, the India Commercial Property Monitor asked respondents whether the policy move would have a negative impact on the office space sector. Only around one quarter of respondents felt this to be the case. Rents are expected to show very little increase over the next next twelve months. The exception to this trend is the prime office segment of the market.
The Investment Sentiment Index slipped into negative territory with a reading of -11 in the Q4. While this points to only a relatively modest deterioration in the investment picture compared to Q3, it is still the worst reading in three years. When asked whether respondents believed demonetisation would result in a drop in real estate prices, a significant minority (45%) said that this will be the case. On the other hand, a majority (51%) did not feel this would be the case, while the remaining 4% did not have a view at this stage. Respondents expect a modest increase in capital values over the next twelve months with the headline projection scaled back from 4.5% to 2%. While some concern was expressed over the near term outlook linked to the demonetisation programme, the office sector is being seen as resilient enough to be able to withstand demonetisation.
Globally, sentiments are better. In Europe, momentum is firm across most markets, with solid demand growth reported from both investors and occupiers. Capital value projections are strongest in Europe as Germany, Czech Republic, Hungary, the Netherlands and Spain lead the way. In the rest of Asia, sentiments are cautious in China while it is downbeat in Singapore and Malaysia. Russia and Brazil continue to show early signs of recovery after three years of volatility.
The monitor is a quarterly guide to the trends in the commercial property investment and occupier markets. The guide is based on survey questionnaires sent out to RICS members over a month long period ending January 6, 2017. Respondents were asked to compare conditions over the latest three months with the previous three months and give their views on the outlook.
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RICS is a global professional body. We promote and enforce the highest professional qualification and standards in the development and management of land, real estate, construction and infrastructure. Our name promises the consistent delivery of standards – bringing confidence to the markets we serve. The work of our professionals creates a safer world: we are proud of our profession’s reputation and we guard it fiercely. RICS offers a wide range of executive education & training solutions for real estate and construction professionals as well as employers. RICS School of Built Environment, Amity University and its faculty are the delivery partners for such training programs.